Sun-burnt and tired after a Kelong trip, I sit here typing away wondering what else to add on the stock markets and the general asset markets. I mean, as far as warning about markets being over-valued, I done that numerous times, to the point of sounding like a broken record player.
Thus for August, I have chosen to write more about life and the joys it bring. For the markets, it is insane enough, driven by liquidity that ought to have been used to spur economic growth instead. So the less said about it the better.
Still, I noticed that after severely lagging markets, the S chips have rallied quite sharply in the last week. From a valuation perspective, they are still great value, but given the opaqueness of management in general, caution is warranted. The rally could be simply liquidity-driven rather than a re-valuation of S chips.Then again, such pessimism is normally the recipe for an unexpeced rally.
So what did August bring? And can we expect more in September? Barring a dramatic collapse, August was another great month, and since insanity has no time limit, September could be another insane month too. For me, that meant more time doing quiet reading and loving life... markets will take the back seat, again.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
Inactive August
No, it's not the asset markets that are inactive... but me. Judging from the blogs, one can see that entries have been infrequent.
Besides a lack of genuinely interesting material, August has also been disruptive for me as our company entered into wind down stage. So there were lots of packing and unpacking at the office.
But not to worry; this is simply an end of one chapter (of my life) and a beginning of a new one. I intend to re-surface quickly in the market, although the exact nature (of the job) remains uncertain.
In fact, the frequency of future blogs also remains uncertain - as much as I enjoy imparting my views via the blogs, the amount of resources (time) that i can spare may now be more limited. Still, I am committed to maintaining this blog. OK, enough about me...
As for the asset markets, it is still a great mystery to me how new home-dwellers seemed willing to cough up SGD1000psf and beyond for mass market type condos. Even the "low end" mass market prices of SGD750-800psf must surely bust every affordability ratios?
Well, I have resigned to the fact that I am an old bear, compared to the modern crop of risk takers. So, I've gladly moved aside and withdraw into my cave and watch this new batch of risk takers bash each other up. Hopefully, I would be around to pick up the nice pieces after this bloody fight.
Besides a lack of genuinely interesting material, August has also been disruptive for me as our company entered into wind down stage. So there were lots of packing and unpacking at the office.
But not to worry; this is simply an end of one chapter (of my life) and a beginning of a new one. I intend to re-surface quickly in the market, although the exact nature (of the job) remains uncertain.
In fact, the frequency of future blogs also remains uncertain - as much as I enjoy imparting my views via the blogs, the amount of resources (time) that i can spare may now be more limited. Still, I am committed to maintaining this blog. OK, enough about me...
As for the asset markets, it is still a great mystery to me how new home-dwellers seemed willing to cough up SGD1000psf and beyond for mass market type condos. Even the "low end" mass market prices of SGD750-800psf must surely bust every affordability ratios?
Well, I have resigned to the fact that I am an old bear, compared to the modern crop of risk takers. So, I've gladly moved aside and withdraw into my cave and watch this new batch of risk takers bash each other up. Hopefully, I would be around to pick up the nice pieces after this bloody fight.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
The Robot Trader
I had a most fascinating dinner last night. Among us was a Chicago pit trader, who has been day-trading the various markets for the past 18 years. But recently, he left the USA for Asia, locating his family in Chiang Mai, while he shuttles down to Singapore to day trade.
Singapore was the obvious choice as she has the infrastructure to conduct the high speed trading, and still close enough to Chiang Mai, where his Thai wife and family lived. But why the move to Asia in the first place? He could not successfully compete against the robot traders.
Robot Traders? These are the emotionless super computers that trade using advance algorithms that could accurately predict short term fluctuations in prices. Now, computerised trading has been around for decades, so what has changed? Technology and Stock Exchange rules.
Technology has evolved so quickly that algorithms began to learn and mimic human behavior. The speed of executing a trade also got faster. But the most damning development was the Exchanges' decision to sell information to their clients about impending orders for a fraction of a second before the trade is routed to rival platforms.
But with these super computers, the information is processed at an estimated speed of 300-millionth of a second, faster than the time taken to route this information to the exchange platform. Hence, super computers could "front run" the order and have an "unfair" advantage over the other traders. This was technological insider trading, but allowed by the Exchanges. This was also known as Flash trading.
Consequently, day traders began to stop trading as they were the ones at the receiving end. Complains of unfair practices reached the Congress, and SEC announced yesterday that they will plan to ban these practices.
In the meantime, many day traders have flocked to Asia, where robot trading is less apparent. Still, this is a timely reminder of how disadvantaged is the common man, in the world of day trading. In fact, this phenomenon has even infiltrated into the world of online poker. Financial Institutions have Poker Division whereby they employed high speed algorithms to play poker! Amazing but apparently true. That's probably why I dislike computers.
Singapore was the obvious choice as she has the infrastructure to conduct the high speed trading, and still close enough to Chiang Mai, where his Thai wife and family lived. But why the move to Asia in the first place? He could not successfully compete against the robot traders.
Robot Traders? These are the emotionless super computers that trade using advance algorithms that could accurately predict short term fluctuations in prices. Now, computerised trading has been around for decades, so what has changed? Technology and Stock Exchange rules.
Technology has evolved so quickly that algorithms began to learn and mimic human behavior. The speed of executing a trade also got faster. But the most damning development was the Exchanges' decision to sell information to their clients about impending orders for a fraction of a second before the trade is routed to rival platforms.
But with these super computers, the information is processed at an estimated speed of 300-millionth of a second, faster than the time taken to route this information to the exchange platform. Hence, super computers could "front run" the order and have an "unfair" advantage over the other traders. This was technological insider trading, but allowed by the Exchanges. This was also known as Flash trading.
Consequently, day traders began to stop trading as they were the ones at the receiving end. Complains of unfair practices reached the Congress, and SEC announced yesterday that they will plan to ban these practices.
In the meantime, many day traders have flocked to Asia, where robot trading is less apparent. Still, this is a timely reminder of how disadvantaged is the common man, in the world of day trading. In fact, this phenomenon has even infiltrated into the world of online poker. Financial Institutions have Poker Division whereby they employed high speed algorithms to play poker! Amazing but apparently true. That's probably why I dislike computers.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
A Kelong Trip
Over the weekend, I did an ambitious trip to a fish farm, a sort of modern day "Kelong". I used the word "ambitious" as along with me, were 72 other people. It was a cell group outing and outreach that turned really successful. It might have been the evangelical works of me and my cell members, but I think it was the charm of the out-of-the-city experience that did the trick.
This Kelong is located off Changi, and a mere 5 minutes from Changi Sailing Club. It is about the size of a football field (i think), huge by any standards. Like many Kelong, it housed many different types of fish, and the kids had a great time, catching them (from their ponds) for dinner! Groupers cost about SGD10 while snappers and sea bass were SGD6-8. Very affordable. For others, it was the nostalgia of sitting on a stool and facing the open sea, armed with a fishing rod and a beer, waiting for the real fishing experience. Pond-fishing was too easy and didn't count.
By night-fall, activity slowed as we wound down and ended the night with a BBQ and great fellowship. The food was prepared by the restaurant at Changi Sailing Club, which by the way is open to public. Very tasty. So for those looking for a night of romance by the seaside, filled with that rustic ambience, Changi Sailing Club restaurant might be the place.
On the whole, the day was fun-filled although there were minor glitches. The children enjoyed themselves while the pro fishermen, who "denounced" the pond fishing, had few catches. As one puts it: "Even the fish stayed home to watch the stock market. Either that, they were queueing for a condo". Still, it was a terrific experience and a big thank you to all who helped to make it a success.
This Kelong is located off Changi, and a mere 5 minutes from Changi Sailing Club. It is about the size of a football field (i think), huge by any standards. Like many Kelong, it housed many different types of fish, and the kids had a great time, catching them (from their ponds) for dinner! Groupers cost about SGD10 while snappers and sea bass were SGD6-8. Very affordable. For others, it was the nostalgia of sitting on a stool and facing the open sea, armed with a fishing rod and a beer, waiting for the real fishing experience. Pond-fishing was too easy and didn't count.
By night-fall, activity slowed as we wound down and ended the night with a BBQ and great fellowship. The food was prepared by the restaurant at Changi Sailing Club, which by the way is open to public. Very tasty. So for those looking for a night of romance by the seaside, filled with that rustic ambience, Changi Sailing Club restaurant might be the place.
On the whole, the day was fun-filled although there were minor glitches. The children enjoyed themselves while the pro fishermen, who "denounced" the pond fishing, had few catches. As one puts it: "Even the fish stayed home to watch the stock market. Either that, they were queueing for a condo". Still, it was a terrific experience and a big thank you to all who helped to make it a success.
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