Thursday, November 12, 2009

Correction Time?

Don't get me wrong... I'm no bear. In fact that is the scary bit - I changed my view about the sustainability of the current rally in October, when I saw how weak the market corrects at each down move.

To put things into perspective, other than the corrective" rally from mid March to April 2009, which practically most people missed, including professional investors, the rally could be described as 2 powerful burst of activity - one in early May and another in mid July.

In between them, there were plenty of time for bearishness. But instead of a sell-off, market simply traded sideways, choosing to "time correct" rather than "price correct". In fact, the current sideway "time correction" is already 3.5 months old and brokers and professionals must be getting restless (sideway, low volatility markets bad for business).

So why so "scary"? Well, there is a saying in the market: That the market tops, when the last Bear turns. Hopefully, I'm not the last bear.